Fourth place in WPT (World Poker Tour)

Maybe I jinxed myself by creating this blog. But again I finished fourth in an important competition. This time, I was the third player eliminated from the TV final table at the Foxwoods World Poker Tour tournament. It will be shown on FSN whenever they show WPT season 9.

This was my biggest tournament poker success to date (although my fourth place in the WSOP event was against a much bigger field). Hopefully this won't be my last tournament cash this winter. I played the NAPT (North American Poker Tour) event in Los Angeles, but did not make the money. I don't intent on joining the "poker circuit," but I will be playing more tournament poker in the near future. Wish me luck.

I'll have more to say on my Foxwoods appearance once it's on TV and I will have a better chance to put my play in perspective. For now, here is one story.

On day four of the tournament, we had still not made the money! There were 27 players for 25 paid places, which was kind of absurd. I had a lot of chips though, so I did not mind. I could put pressure on all of my opponents, since any of their allin hands against me could bust them, sending them home with nothing after playing poker for four days.

My table mates included two of today's best young poker players, Jason Mercier and Sorel Mizzi. Neither was extremely short stacked, but I had both of their chip stacks covered. I used this to my extreme advantage.

Jason and Sorel are really really good tournament players. They have won many tournaments before, and they have supreme self-confidence in winning again, even without a huge chip stack. At any point in the tournament, but especially during the later stages, they think they have a better chance of winning than a strict count of their chips would indicate. What this means is that they will *never* put their chips allin preflop without a great hand.

This strategy can be very exploitable. Suppose that Jason or Sorel raises and it is folded to me. I can 3bet (reraise) with any hand, knowing that Jason or Sorel will not put the rest of their chips in without a great hand (and great hands are rare). Of course, I can not raise *every* time, but I can, and did, reraise them quite often. Usually, I had nothing and would have folded for an allin, but Jason and Sorel did not play back at me often. In fact, they only played back at me once, in maybe 30 times that I 3bet them over two days. That time, Jason had AK and I called with AQ. He doubled up, but I could afford it, having won so many chips from raising him and Sorel earlier. I wish that he or Sorel had played back at me one of the other times, as I did have AK, KK and QQ on several occasions. Mostly though, I had nothing, and they knew it. But there was nothing that Jason or Sorel could do, expect play their own cards.

There has to be something missing from this story. How can I 3bet with nothing, over and over, against good players and make money with no risk? This strategy only works if everyone else plays along. In particular, I have assumed that all other players at the table will fold. For the most part, this is true! Faced with a raise and reraise, tournament players fold everything except the very best hands. Even if they notice the game that me, Jason and Sorel are playing, how could any of them put all their chips in without a great hand? It's just too much risk! How embarrassing would it be to go allin with something like 88 or ATs into a bet and a raise, to be called and dominated! That is why most players don't do it. Especially having played for three or four days to get close to the money. Their play is rational, and I would do the same, even if the game theory said otherwise.

However, this 3bet strategy totally fails earlier in the tournament, especially against weaker players. Once player are willing to overcall or go all with 88 or ATs against an aggressive 3better, then the play loses much of its appeal. Some of that happened to me in LA at the NAPT. I had a lot of chips early in day 2, but I squandered a fair number of them raising and reraising preflop against players who were less cautions about putting their chips in the pot. What did work for me, however, was raising preflop and then taking down pots on the flop or the turn with more betting. After all, most tournament players don't know how to play so-so hands after the flop, even if they know how to call with them pre-flop.

Going forward, I will keep all of this in mind. My 3betting strategy worked brilliantly during the last three days of the Foxwoods tournament. But I over-valued it in early tournament play, and it cost me in LA. Next time, I will be better prepared. Watch out. I might break that fourth place ceiling yet!